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Commentary by Greg Davis, chief investment officer of The Vanguard Group, Inc.
As I sit here putting this article together, U.S. equities have opened with gains, something the news headlines suggested was unlikely as I went to bed last night. China took steps to stabilize its currency, and that calmed nervous markets.
We tell investors they shouldn't pay attention to the markets' day-to-day movements. But it's sometimes impossible to avoid—like when stocks fall 3% in a day, as they did Monday, August 5, in the United States, a sixth straight day of losses. That's why it's so important that investors have an asset allocation they can remain committed to, even when markets might appear to be in a free fall.
Markets bounce back, whether their challenge is U.S.-China trade (as it has been recently), or Brexit, or simply the end of a business cycle.
Global economic challenges
No doubt, the global economy faces challenges. The U.S.-China trade dispute unsettles markets already coming to terms with economies nearing the end of their natural business cycles. The U.S. economy has grown for a decade; the European and Japanese economies for most of that period. While a global or major regional recession in the next 12 months isn't our base case, we do expect global growth to soften, as we discussed in our recent midyear market and economic update.
As economies soften, you can expect more volatility, more headlines professing doom, and, perhaps, more signals from within to just do something. And you should indeed do something—but during a period of calm, not in a panic: Reevaluate your asset allocation.
Get comfortable with your allocation
It's true that stocks offer investors of all ages an important means of growth in their portfolios. Older investors typically need less stock exposure and more fixed income exposure. Younger investors, who have more time to recover from any prolonged market downturn, can typically take on more stock risk. Of course, all investors are different, so individuals' asset allocations will vary.
Investors have largely been rewarded, especially so in the United States, for their stock exposure during a decade of global growth. We advise all investors to periodically rebalance their assets so gains in stocks, for example, don't leave a portfolio with a greater-than-desired stock exposure.
Periodic rebalancing also lets investors perform a gut check: Am I going to stick with this allocation if stocks fall by 10%? By 20%? Get comfortable with your allocation and you may be able to ward off any impulse to sell after markets have already fallen or buy after they've already risen.
You can't control what happens half a world away while you sleep. But if you have an asset allocation that you can remain committed to, you're very much in control.
Notes on risk:
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investments in bond funds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk. Foreign investing involves additional risks, including currency fluctuations and political uncertainty. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of funds will meet your investment objectives or provide you with a given level of income. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
The views expressed in this material are based on the author's assessment as of the first publication date on August 6, 2019, and are subject to change without notice and may not represent the views and/or opinions of Vanguard Investments Canada Inc. The authors may not necessarily update or supplement their views and opinions whether as a result of new information, changing circumstances, future events or otherwise. Any "forward-looking" information contained in this material should be construed as general investment or market information and no representation is being made that any investor will, or is likely to achieve, returns similar to those mentioned in this material or anticipated in this material.
This material is for informational purposes only. This material is not intended to be relied upon as research, investment, or tax advice and is not an implied or express recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to adopt any particular investment or portfolio strategy. Any views and opinions expressed do not take into account the particular investment objectives, needs, restrictions and circumstances of a specific investor and, thus, should not be used as the basis of any specific investment recommendation. Please consult your financial and/or tax advisor for financial and/or tax information applicable to your specific situation.