A lot has happened since Vanguard published its global economic and market outlook for 2019. In this article, three Vanguard economists offer their insights on how trade tensions between China and the United States are changing the landscape.
As the U.S. economy enters the later stages of its economic expansion, returns are projected to be more modest than in previous late-cycle periods. Tailoring a portfolio to this environment can enhance risk and return characteristics, but it can also expose investors to suboptimal portfolios if scenarios develop differently than expected.
China's GDP growth slowed to 6.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018, providing evidence of the U.S.-China trade war's economic toll. Vanguard's Qian Wang looks at the trade talks and whether Chinese stimulus measures will foster economic stability.
This Vanguard research paper explores how tightening financial conditions and greater policy uncertainty influence the likelihood of recession. The paper also looks at the effects on U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy.